MetsCitiBlog

Hold your breath for the World Baseball Classic, starting March 5th

It is coming, whether you like it or not.  The World Baseball Classic starts on March 5th, 2009.  The four pools of round one will take place in the following venues: Japan, Mexico, Canada, & Puerto Rico.  Round two will be in San Diego & Miami with the Finals set to take place in Los Angeles.

As a baseball fan I think the idea is cool, but the timing sucks.  Also, it feels like the whole Mets' team is playing for one country or another.  The law of averages says that it is impossible for the event to take place without at least one major injury.  I just pray to god that it isn't anyone on the Mets.  Not that I wish injury on anyone, just especially not the Mets.  Why don't they do this in December in some warm country as make it like an off-season vacation/Pro Bowl thing?

Stay healthy 2009 Mets.  I cannot wait until its over.

Time for the Mets to take advantage of the market

The Yankees are done.  The Red Sox appear done.  The cubs have traded for Aaron Heilman today and barring a Jake Peavy trade are done.  The Angels appear done except for maybe Manny.  The Dodgers are focused on spending and bidding against themselves on Manny.  Where does that leave us?  It leaves us with the Mets in a great position to grab some bargains now that all the big markets appear set to open spring training.  Manny is not coming to New York.  We know that.  However, there are several players available only three weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting that could significantly help the roster.  Let's take a look at the top names available that would help the Mets:

1. Oliver Perez- odds are he ends up back with the Mets.  No one seems to be in on him except for the Mets.  Young, healthy, and sometimes spectacular, Perez needs to mature &and add consistency to join the top tier of pitchers in the league.
2. Ben Sheets- When healthy, he is simply an ace.  Coming off a strong year, with an injury at the wrong time, the end of the season.  Sheets has had his share of injuries, however none seem chronic as he has had a variety.  Also worth noting, Sheets has had more 30 start years that AJ Burnett (just got an $80 million contract).
3. Bobby Abreu- the veteran is nothing special on defense, but pencil him in for 100 RBI, 100 runs, 60-80 extra base hits, and a strong obp (.405 career).
4. Adam Dunn- think of Dunn as a younger, more powerful version of Abreu.  Solid for 40 homers, 100 RBI, 100 Runs, 100ish BB's, and he is only 29 years old.
5. Chad Cordero- coming back from arm injury, this former elite closer was a former prodigy of Omar Minaya's in Montreal.  On the cheap, he could end up a valuable setup guy if healthy.

There are a number of others available as well that could help any team.  Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson are two of those possibilities, however, I do not like them for their fit with the Mets right now.  Hudson is likely to command a decent salary and we have no place to put him.  Wolf has never showed me much and I am not impressed.  We already have Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia thanks. 

With the exception of Perez, any of those guys can be had for less than $10 million and should not require even a second year let alone a third (Sheets is the exception and I don't mind a second year with a third year option for him).  I say sign Perez for three and and option, total contract worth around $40 million for the four years.  Give Sheets a two year deal as I suggested in an earlier post for $18-20 million and a third year option if healthy with a good bump in salary.  If he does well, do you think the Mets have a problem with that?  Sign Abreu or Dunn if, and only if, you can get one of them for $6-8 million for next year to bridge to Fernando Martinez.  Finally, Minaya should sweet talk Cordero into a minor league deal or a one year deal with incentives to join the bullpen when healthy. 

I know this is all hypotheical, but as we get closer to spring training and less teams are shopping, a couple strong moves could net you some solid bargains.  The key, sign Perez sooner than later because a lot of the guys are probably waiting to see what the Mets do after that.  Let's go Omar, step up to the plate.

Diamondbacks sign Garland to one year deal

According to Nick Piecoro, the Diamondbacks have come to terms with right hander Jon Garland on a one year deal worth between $6-8 million.  Garland becomes another player that rejected arbitration from his former team only to have it bite him in the butt.  Due a raise from his $12 million salary from 2008 in arbitration, Garland rejected the offer and chose to hit the open market in hopes of a multi-year deal worth big money.  He was not expecting the economy to hit him this hard. 

This is a great signing for the D-Backs.  After Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, Garland will be a great innings eater in the three slot and should definately improve upon his AL numbers (bye bye DH).  Arizona will most likely be able to keep the bullpen fresh with that trio at the top and as Piecoro points out, this will allow Arizona to move top prospect Max Scherzer along slower. 

In my opinion, the chips will begin to fall this week ahead as we start to see these other guys forced to accept similar deal (Wolf, Abreu, Dunn, Sheets).  Also, the Oliver Perez market seems nowhere to be found except at Citi Field.  A report surfaced the other day saying that the Rangers and Brewers were believed to be interested in Perez.  However, Brewers GM Bob Melvin quickly nipped that in the bud and the Rangers seem to have no major push to sign anyone, unless Ben Sheets can be had on their terms.  It smells like a Scott Boras move to drum up hype. 

This week, look for the Mets to lock up Perez for three years and an option.  I feel they will then take a look at Ben Sheets for a year maybe with an option.  They will then turn their attention to trying to snag one of the bats (Dunn, Abreu, Hudson, etc.) on the cheap side for a year until Fernando Martinez is ready.  Hudson is the least likely of that trio.  I am not a big Abreu fan at all, but a year of him for $6 million, I say do it.  It would be more productive than the Tatis/Murphy platoon.

Sheets running out of suitors, Mets around?

Now that the Yankees have re-signed Andy Pettitte to a one year deal worth $5.5 million plus incentives, Ben Sheets is in a bad spot.  He just lost the last big money team that had any interest in him that could spend big without hesitation.  Sheets is coming off a good season that ended with an injury.  The injury cost him tens of millions of dollars.  Fact is, Sheets has been more solid, productive, and healthy than A.J. Burnett.  However, Burnett ended strong and scored a contract over $80 million dollars.  Sheets's injury is the first thought on ever owner and manager's mind.  Consequently, he is viewed in a negative light. 

I have talked about my affininty for Oliver Perez.  Also, I have thrown it out there that I would love to see Perez and Sheets both signed.  With no known suitors for Sheets except for a leary Texas Ranger team, now is the time to swoop in and grab them both.  Sources seem to believe that no one wants to give Sheets a guaranteed second year.  I say go for it.  Give him a second year and even an incentive based third year.  $18-20 million over two years and an option worth an additional year at $12 million with a buyout for $2 million.  Affordable by today's market for an ace, and short if it goes bad due to injury. 

Combine the offer for Sheets at $20 million with an offer to Perez for roughly $33 million (which the revised offer is reportedly close to) and you have Perez and Sheets for a total of about $53 million.  That's about $30 million cheaper than Burnett's deal and about $108 million cheaper than C.C. Sabathia's.  I love those numbers as a Mets fan, as well as the two arms.  If healthy, Sheets is a 1-2 starter and Perez is a strong 3.  It just makes sense for them and is not far-fetched.

In fact, I would go so far as to sign Sheets first and put some pressure on Oliver Perez.  With a short list of suitors himself, Perez might be quicker to sign a strong, fair three year deal before he ends up with one year offers like Garland, Wolf, and some others are being offered.

Freddy Garcia to sign with the Mets

Adam Rubin at the NY Daily News is reporting that Freddy Garcia has agreed to a minor league deal with the Mets.  According to Rubin, the deal is loaded with incentives that could reach up to $8-9 million for the year if Garcia reaches them all.  In the end, it seems that the Mets beat out the Yankees, Rangers, and White Sox for Garcia's services. 

This is a great signing for the Mets, especially because it seems to be a minor league deal as the Daily News is reporting.  The Mets need to sign a couple risk/reward guys to bring in as insurance and as possible rotation members if they prove to be healthy and serviceable.  Garcia will not be a signing instead of a Sheets, Perez, Wolf, Garland.  Rather, from what I can gather around the block is that Perez or Sheets most likely will be signed hopefully and Garcia, Redding, Niese, et al. will compete for the 5th spot and stay in waiting in the event of an injury. 

There is a lot of grumbling that the Mets may now be setting their sights on Sheets for a couple years rather than the four or five year deal that Perez wants.  It would seem that the Mets coul use a Sheets signing as a way to get to Parnell and Niese in a year or two.  Next year's free agent class is pretty slim, except for John Lackey and Justin Duchscherer (Rich Harden & Erik Bedard are also FA, but injury risks as well).  I am still a fan of locking up Perez for a deal and do not see four years as to much.  He is only 27 years old and has been very reliable.  If he can mature, get his emotions in check, and work a little less to accomplish more, I think he can easily be a 200 inning guy for several years. 

It will be interesting to see what happens with Sheets.  I think we will see him end up somewhere within a week or two.

Mets & Yankees lead in pursuit of Garcia

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that he has heard from Major League sources that right-hander Freddy Garcia has narrowed his choices to basically the New York teams.  Both the Yankees and the Mets see Garcia as a risk/reward option for their respective staffs.  After hurting his arm and having surgery in 2007, Garcia is finally now healthy it seems and may be ready to contribute significantly to someone's staff.  Prior to his injury, Garcia was a horse that had 6 straight 200+ inning seasons and was 116-71 until 2007. 

It seems that both teams are probably trying to keep it at a minor league deal with lots of incentives at this point.  The Yankees need a 5th starter to buy some time until Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes steps up and takes the ball successfully.  The Mets clearly need a starter or two and are looking at a variety of available pitchers.  They continue to negotiate with Oliver Perez, while also having conversations with Ben Sheets, Jon Garland and possibly Randy Wolf, though I have heard his name less in recent days.

Mets need to attack the market for starters

There are 27 days until pitchers and catcher report for spring training.  The Mets still do not know how the rotation will shake out.  We know where Mr. Johan Santana will be, right at the top.  We also know where Tim Redding will be, right at the back end.  However, spots two, three, and four remain a mystery.  Will Mike Pelfrey find himself in the three because of a strong stretch that emerged him as a solid member of the staff?  Will John Maine be a three because of history or a four because of a weak year and injury last season?  One thing is for certain, the Mets have no number two on the roster right now.  

The names, in random order include:

1.  Oliver Perez

2.  Randy Wolf

3.  Ben Sheets

4.  Jon Garland

5.  Andy Pettitte

6.  Freddy Garcia

Let's take it from the top.  

Oliver Perez, my vote is yes.  Give him the four year deal.  Hell give him an option for a fifth.  I really feel his best is yet to come.  He is young, healthy, and has the balls to pitch in New York.

Randy Wolf, not my number two.  A solid three, a good four, and an awesome five.  However, the Mets need a two, not an average guy.  He is always bouncing around(four teams in the last 3 years).  Is it because teams get him and realize how mediocre he is?  My guess is yes.

Ben Sheets, hello Citi Field.  Sign him tomorrow.  Give him two years for $16-$20 million and an option for a third depending on health for another $10 million.  Get him in as an ace pitching second in the rotation.  He has had injury problems, yes.  However, Sheets does not have recurring injuries.  He has had some bizarre issues (ear issues) and he has had some arm issues (shoulder tendinitis/flexor tendon strain).  

Jon Garland, my fallback from Perez/Sheets.  I think Garland is a National League gem in the making.  No, I do not think he comes to the NL and becomes an ace.  However, I do think he is at least a strong number three in the NL.  He has been average in the AL and gives up hits.  However, he doesn't walk a lot of guys and has averaged 206 inning a year since 2002.  In addition, he would be pitching against pitchers instead of David Ortiz and a host of other DH's.  I see him posting an ERA below 4.00 and winning 13-15 games in the NL pitching 210 innings.

Andy Pettite, NO WAY!  I would rather see him finally blow out his elbow in an Old Timer's Day game than at Citi Field.  Please do not overpay for a washed up ex-Yankee.  Cashman is smart to dump him now.  

Freddy Garcia, on a minor league deal, sure.  The guy can pitch, that's for sure.  He was a horse in the AL for years and seems to finally be healthy.  Bring him in and let him send Tim Redding to the pen if he is up to it.

Its time for the Mets to attack the market.  Sign Perez and Sheets.  Send Redding to the pen.  He already said he would do it.  Santana, Sheets, Perez, Pelfrey, Maine.  Tim Redding as a fallback.  That is a strong rotation and bullpen.  Perez and Garland, same thing.  Perez and Wolf, same thing.  Perez and Freddy Garcia, same thing.  Get where I am going with this?  The Mets need to take advantage of the market.  The Red Sox got Smoltz and Penny for only $10 million guaranteed next year.  Think they wouldn't love to pay all of $10 million in combined incentives to the two players?   That doesn't even take into account Saito for their pen.  I am not saying to overspend.  On the contrary, work the market to your favor like the Red Sox are doing. 

Make some moves besides Alex Cora and Casey Fossum!!  Lefty Casey Fossum just signed a minor league deal today according to Rotoworld.  Minaya has started to bring in the scrubs to pick and choose from for the bullpen's final members.

Braves are in deep discussions with Derek Lowe

Jon Heyman is reporting that the Brave are going after Derek Lowe very hard.  He believes their offer was in the area of 4 years for $60 million, easily eclipsing the Mets offer of 3 year and $36 million.  After losing on on multiple free agents earlier in the off-season, the Braves seem to be determined not to lose out on Derek Lowe.  

The Braves have a real need for a number one and Lowe would fit that mold.  He has emerged as a solid top of the rotation guy that consistently gives you 7 or 8 innings each time out.

The Mets may be turning their attention to Oliver Perez now, as reports have surfaced that they have offered him a 3 year deal in the $30 million range.  I prefer Perez at this point anyway.  Younger, great stuff, and headed to a more mature stage in his life, I see Perez being a strong rotation guy for the next 5 or 6 years.  By the way, he would only be 32-33 after that long.  Also, he is left-handed, which the Mets lack in the rotation besides Santana. 

Michael Young on the trading block, not a fit for the Mets

Various agencies, including Ken Rosenthal, are reporting that Michael Young has requested a trade from the Rangers this off-season.  The request was made because Ranger brass told Young that they wanted him to play third base in order to accomadate top prospect Elvis Andrus.  Young was apparently very upset by this and told the team to explore trades to a short list of teams.  The 32 year old shortstop is owed about $62 million over 5 years.  

Although his production dropped off a bit offensively this year, the six time all-star did win his first Gold Glove.  He is a great hitter and has five 200+ hit seasons under his belt to go along with four season of 100+ runs and four seasons of 90+ RBI.  However, he is 32 and is owed a lot of money in a contract that will not be over until he is 37 years old.  This smells like trouble.  

Do the Mets trade away a lot and get the Rangers to pick up a considerable chuck of the money?  Do the Mets give up less and take on most or all of the salary?  Reports are that the Rangers think way to highly of Young's trade value.  Young has stated that he would go back to second base, his original position, for a new team.  I would feel comfortable with two or three years of Michael Young, but five is too many for a 32 year old middle infielder.  

At this point, Orlando Hudson should be available on a three year deal for about $30 million.  Because of the market, I would feel better about committing this money to him and not trading away prospects.  

Oliver Perez a better option for Mets than Derek Lowe

Oliver Perez is 27 years old.  Derek Lowe is 35 years old.  There are reports surfacing that Omar Minaya prefers Oliver Perez and some others in the front office would rather have Derek Lowe.  At this time, the Mets are primarily pursuing Lowe with Perez as the first fallback.  Perez would produce a couple of draft picks if he were to sign elsewhere because of his type A status.  Lowe would cost the Mets a pick.

Lowe is more seasoned, strong in the post season, and consistent from start to start.  In 34 starts this past season, Lowe went 7 innings or more 15 times.  While he does not strikeout a ton of hitters, he gets his share and has an excellent walk rate of less than 2 per 9 innings. 

Perez, however, is still working on the consistency.  He has the ability to shut teams down like an ace (June 29th against the Yanks 7 innings, one run, no bb's, 8 k's) or get knocked out of the box like a clueless rookie (June 2nd against the Giants 1/3 of an inning, 6 runs, 2 hr's).  In 34 starts this year, Perez went 7 or more innings only 7 times.  

So, based on the above stats, why would I suggest the Mets go for Perez instead of Lowe?  Well, I have a couple of reasons.  First, Perez is 8 years younger while still not a new guy on the block.  At only 27, Perez already has 7 full seasons under his belt.  He would seem to be able to turn the corner as he moves into the middle part of his career.  This is a similar point at which many pitchers begin to solidify their careers.  Also, he has established himself enough so that it should be safe to assume he would not get worse.  There is a track record of moderate to high success.  He has great stuff and he is left handed as well.  Without Perez, the Mets have Johan Santana as the only left-handed starter on the team.  I see this as a major negative not only for the Phillies being so lefty-stacked, but also for general rotation balance.  Not that Lowe can't, but Perez is comfortable with New York and can handle  the pressure.  He will come cheaper per season than Lowe as well.  

I am not saying to do this, but even if you gave Ollie a 6 year contract, he is still only 33 at the end of it.  At this point, you aren't getting Lowe for less than a 3 year deal with an easily attained option 4th year.  At the end of that deal, he is 39 years old.  Finally, we know that Lowe will throw you 200 innings a year, but how long can he do that for?  At this point Oliver Perez has thrown 999 innings in his career.  Lowe has thrown twice that at 1940 innings.  How many innings does he have in that arm?  There is a good chance he could go another 4 years, but there is another chance that the innings catch up to him too.

Oliver Perez would seem to have the best part of his career in front of him I believe.  He worked well with the new pitching coach Dan Wharthen this past season and having Johan Santana to watch and work with will not hurt either.  Also, I feel like the trio of Perez, Pelfrey, and Maine can seemingly age together on the staff as a core of pitchers that could be together for some time.  I really think it would be a mistake to let him go.  He basically threw 200 innings last year (194) and has been really injury free except for a broken toe during a temper tantrum early in his career and a stiff back a couple years ago.  If he leaves, he becomes another team's star.