MetsCitiBlog

Mets make an offer to Derek Lowe

Not surprisingly, the Mets made an offer of 3 years for $36 million dollars today to Derek Lowe.  If you had asked me to make a prediction on what I thought the opening bid would be, it would be this.  It is a safe bet that is neither a low ball offer nor too high to start.  Derek Lowe will not sign for this and I still think he gets four years and around $52 million dollars.  I wouldn't even rule out a fifth year option since Boras is involved.  However, I am happy the Mets are progressing.  

I expect there will be an offer to Oliver Perez tomorrow.  He would probably get an offer very similar.  It it were me, I prefer Perez.  He is left-handed, much younger and he loves the spotlight.  Lowe is a safe bet also since he is an inning eater, playoff tested, and perennially healthy.  I get the sense that the Mets want Lowe because he is a vet that throws a lot of innings and they would love to get back a couple of draft picks since they are losing them from K-Rod and possibly Lowe.  Randy Wolf is a distant third choice that I really think has a stronger market that Lowe or Perez based on his mediocrity.  More teams can afford a mediocre pitcher than a premium guy at this point.  

I assume that the Mets will sign Lowe at this point.  I am guessing it will be around 4 years for $52 million dollars.  I would be very happy with that.  Add that to the K-Rod deal and you are still under $100 million dollars.  At that point, I firmly believe you have to either go after Oliver Perez or Manny Ramirez .  This off-season has shown the Mets can get some bargain deals.  What good are they unless you can exploit that and sign additional players?

The next couple of days will lay out the future.  Good luck Mets faithful.  We need it.

Mets and Dodgers talking Andruw Jones

Buster Olney at ESPN is reporting that the Mets and Dodgers have been talking about an Andruw Jones trade.  The Dodgers owe Jones about $22 million left from the two year deal they signed him to last off-season.  Up until 2007, he had been a consistent slugger and a great outfielder.  However, last year he tanked at the plate.  He hit under .200 for the season and struck out 76 times in only 209 at bats.  Besides the loss of production, his waistband has grown quite a bit.  He was a muscular kid early in his career, but now he is overweight.  

There are so many things to think about regarding this rumor.  First, is Castillo involved in this, going to the Dodgers?  If not, what is Omar thinking unless the Dodgers are eating 80% of his remaining contract.  Also, why not go for Manny for a two year deal if you want something short-term.  A cheap Andruw that rebounds would be great, but can you bank on that?  If this is true, I have to believe that Minaya has a bigger picture here that I am just not seeing.  Obviously, if Castillo goes, Orlando Hudson is on a plane to NY to play second base.  That makes a seriously solid infield.  

With all the reports coming out right now with the Dodgers talking to Dunn, Abreu, etc. the market for Manny Ramirez is either shrinking rapidly or the Dodgers are trying to bluff Manny's price down even more.  This Dunn/Abreu thing seems a little fishing for the Dodgers.  When all is said and done, I believe Manny goes back to LA.  

I have to make my plug for a 2 year deal from the Mets.  Manny in the Mets lineup would be sick.  I know all of the cons on him.  Attitude, behavior, clubhouse personality, etc.  But you know what?  Even when Manny doesn't try, he is well above average at the plate.  What do you think the difference between his numbers and Tatis/Murphy numbers would be?  It is the difference between making the playoff and not.  Ask the Dodgers?  Pretend he came to the Mets last year instead of going to LA.  Does Philadelphia still win the division?  If you're not sure, here are the numbers when he was in LA:       .396 average with 17 homers and 53 RBI in 53 games.  His OBP was .489!   

Mets are in the playoff with those stats.

Boston close to signing Brad Penny

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Red Sox are on the verge of signing Brad Penny to a one year deal.  Contract language and a physical are all that remain apparently.  If this is true, the Red Sox rotation of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Dice-K, Tim Wakefield, and Brad Penny is a strong one.  It would certainly match up pretty well with the Yankees rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Chamberlain, and Hughes.

Boston has a track record for going for short term deals with a lot of upside.  Penny, a 16 game winner in 2007 is a workhorse when healthy and a tough guy.  If he comes into the season in shape and free of the lingering injuries from last year, he should give the Sox 200+ innings and a solid ERA of 3.50-4.00.  I think this is a great job by the Red Sox to shore up the starting pitching.  

I also think this is a great sign for the Mets as well.  The only way I see the Sox being in on Derek Lowe at this point is if they plan on using Wakefield as a long man/spot starter.  I do not see that happening.  Especially because they still have Justin Masterson and Clay Buchholz waiting in the wings.  Is a Buchholz trade on the horizon for a young catcher?  We shall see.

Lowe or Perez? How about both?

As the off-season continues, more teams are content with rosters to go into the season with.  Teams that have spent/traded considerably to upgrade are looking for steals, bargains, and next year's comeback story like Fernando Tatis.  Because of this, there have been reports in the NY Post, the NY Daily News, and more suggesting that the Mets are in a great spot to get Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez (Buster Olney thinks both) for a steal.  

Although I am cautiously optimistic about them signing a front end starter, I remain weary of Red Sox Nation coming in with a big deal for the services of Lowe.  Also, the more affordable he or Perez seem, the more teams will be involved.  Teams like the Cardinals, Brewers, Rangers, Dodgers, and Braves all came into the off-season with needs in the rotation.  Some have addressed situations and some haven't.  However, all would jump back in if the price was right (with the exception of the Cardinals maybe).  

In a perfect world, Lowe and Perez are in Mets uniforms in 2009,  A rotation of Santana, Lowe, Perez, Pelfrey, and Maine looks damn good on paper going into the season.  The reality is that we will probably end up with Lowe, let Perez go to get the picks to recoup losing picks for the Rodriguez and Lowe signings, and sign somebody low level to compete with Niese for the fifth spot.  Wolf, Redding, ...?  

Reports indicate that Minaya is attempting to get the starting pitchers resolved before or soon after January 1st in order to make any small changes needed before spring training.  One way or another, the Mets are not done and will have another starter or two in place.  

Happy New Year!

Church & family happy to turn the page to 2009

The Daily News has a great article on Ryan Church and his family.  In it, Church talks about his brothers, Matt back from Iraq and Andy a guard at the Colorado State Penitentiary.  Church also talks about the struggles of going through the concussions last year and how happy he really is in New York, ending with the statement, "I love New York-it's where I want to finish my career."  He is in Florida this off-season working out at the National's complex.  

I have to say Church became a quick fan favorite and an exciting player to watch.  I sense that he plays the game the way it should be played, tough and professionally.  I really look for him to break out this year.  He is a great defender with a strong arm and a serious power threat, with great doubles potential.In fact, in 2007 he had 43 doubles in only 470 at bats.  Church in the two hole sounds great to me.  He has a strong bat and a good on base percentage for his career (.347).  I think Reyes does well with Church behind him.  Against a lefty, I go with Beltran behind him.  Luis Castillo is a solid number 8 hitter if you ask me.  

If you were to tell me that Orlando Hudson were coming to New York however, there is your number 2 hitter.    

Teixeira signs with Yanks for over $170 million

According to Buster Olney at ESPN.com, Mark Teixeira has signed with the Yankees for over $170 million for 8 years.  The Yankees swooped into the talks relatively late as the main suitors were unable to lock down a deal.  The Orioles, Nationals, and Red Sox all had offers in while the Angels recently pulled their offer to move on in another direction.  All indications up to this point had pointed to the Red Sox eventually signing the young first baseman.  

With this deal, the Yankees have now spent over $400 million dollars on three players.  A.J. Burnett signed a contract worth $82.5 million dollars.  C.C. Sabathia signed a contract with the Yankees for $161 million dollars.  Can this put them back into the postseason?  Let's hope so for Joe Girardi's sake.

Teixeira's true colors will shine soon

Sometime in the next few days I think, Mark Teixeira will let his true colors shine through.  Before I continue, I must say, as most of you know, I am a Mets fan.  I have no interest in this free agent because the Mets have none.  He would look good in blue and orange, but it isn't happening.  That being said, where will he sign?  Will it be Boston, Baltimore, Washington, Los Angeles, or the Bronx?

A few years ago, a similar situation occurred with another Scott Boras client.  His name is Alex Rodriguez.  After the 2000 season, A-Rod signed the largest baseball contract in the history of the game.  A 10 year contract worth $252 million sent him to the bottom of the AL West, the Texas Rangers.  Several teams were scared off by the asking price and by the reputation of Rodriguez and his super-agent, Scott Boras.  However, the Rangers bit and signed Rodriguez to solve their problems.

So where did those 2001 Texas Rangers finish?  How about last place in the division and 43 games behind his old team, the Seattle Mariners.

What's the point you might ask?  Well, Mark Teixeira is entertaining offers from several teams, including perennial losers, Baltimore and Washington.  Baltimore is almost certainly out of it based on having one of the lower offers on the table (around $140 million for 6-8 years).  However, there are reports from multiple sources that Washington may very well have the top bid so far and be at or near $200 million.  Somewhere in between, you will find the Angels and the Red Sox, with the Yankees hanging out deciding whether or not to drop in a competitive bid.  

Where will the true colors of Mark Teixeira land him?  Certainly he will be insanely rich even if he took the low bid and headed home to Baltimore.  However, he has Scott Boras, and we know where he wants Tex to sign.  Whatever team gives him every last dollar.  Can and will Teixeira leave $20-$30 million dollars on the table from the Nationals to play for a perennial powerhouse like the Angels or the Red Sox?  Or will he go green and suck every last dollar up?  

We will know in the coming days.  

Redding admits interest in and from the Mets

According to the NY Daily News, Tim Redding is smart enough to say the right things and not eliminate a New York team from his options.  These days, you just cannot put much stock in what a player or his agent is saying regarding interest in certain clubs.  I do not know of anyone that is dumb enough to eliminate one or both of the NY teams, Boston, LA, etc.  It would be financial suicide.  Its all about creating a market based on the big boys and hoping they are interested.

For example, what do you think K-Rod gets for a contract if the Yankees, Red Sox, or even the Dodgers had been in need of a closer and the market was not so flooded?  I would be willing to bet that he gets at least 4 years for $15 million per.  

Redding is a sub par starter that is hoping to be someone's fifth starter.  He was non-tendered by the Nationals for god's sake.  At this point, his agent's job is to come up with a market for him of some sort.

Currently, the other teams that seem to think he is worth a look are the Rockies, Rangers, and the Orioles.  He made about $1 million last year for the Nationals.  

I guess as a fifth starter I don't hate the thought of bringing him in.  The name Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez better be in front of him in our rotation though.  

State of the Mets, 12/17/08

At this point in the off-season, where are the Mets?  Let's do a bit of a recap and a look ahead to the next 2 months leading up to spring training.

Omar has flipped the bullpen upside down.  Insert K-Rod and J.J. Putz as your closer and eighth inning guy, respectively.  Also, Omar has brought in Sean Green and Jeremy Reed, a righty reliever and a defensive 4th outfielder in the Putz deal.  Also brought in was Connor Robertson, a righty with a decent record in the minors that has yet to produce on the major league level.  So far, going bye bye from the team in all these deals were the following:

Joe Smith
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoeneweis
Endy Chavez
Mike Carp, & other prospects

The Mets main focus is now centered squarely on a starting pitcher or two.  My guess is it will be two if Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez both sign else where.  If the Mets sign Lowe or Perez and spend big money, look for them to simply go with Jon Niese in the fifth starter spot.  As the days pass, it looks better and better, I think, for the Mets to acquire Derek Lowe.  He should probably fall in the $45-$65 million dollar range for 3-4 years.  I do not see the market being outstanding for him so that teams would compete enough to drive him to 5 years.  According to Metsblog, the main teams involved appear to be the Mets, Red Sox, Angels,Braves, and possibly the Cubs.  However, the Brave are reluctant to go high in salary or years for Lowe.  Also, the Cubs seem poised to eventually land Jake Peavy.  Boston stands to acquire Mark Teixeira and does not really need Derek Lowe.  Would they want to drop another $50 million on him after dropping $160-$200 million on Teixeira?  I do not think so.

Several pitchers and position players have been linked to the Mets in some way this off-season.  I will put the pitcher first, then position players.

Oliver Perez
Derek Lowe
Jon Garland
Tim Redding
Randy Wolf
John Smoltz
Kenshin Kawakami
Freddy Garcia
Chad Cordero

Jason Varitek
Michael Young
Orlando Hudson
David Eckstein
Juan Rivera
Bobby Abreu
Manny Ramirez

As noted on several news sites, it is likely that the next week or so will be rather slow (with the exception of Teixeira possibly signing this week according to mlbtr.  The holidays are upon us, Scott Boras is slower that molasses, and history shows that most of the action after the winter meetings occurs after the holidays.  January looks to be a big month. 

Rather than link every single player in this article, go here and check out any of the players above by name.

Mets have interest in LHP Randy Wolf & RHP Tim Redding

Marty Noble has confirmed on Mets.com that the Mets are showing interest in LHP Randy Wolf.  It is no secret that the Mets need a starter and really two.  Randy Wolf confirmed that his agent has been talking to the Mets.  After dramatically changing the bullpen, Omar and company are now focused on the starting pitching department. 

There appears to be dialogue between the Mets and Scott Boras regarding Oliver Perez, but he wants 5 years and in the area of $70 million.  Derek Lowe is on the horizon and logically the Mets seem like a fit if they are willing to spend some money.  To a lesser extent, Garland and others are available as well.

The thing with Randy Wolf is, he is not a number 3 starter.  Wolf is more like a 4th slot or even 5th.  That is what I envision being the competition for Jon Niese at the end of the rotation.  I am sure Omar does not think a rotation of Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, Wolf, and Niese will get it done.  That will not do it and I won't pretend it will.   

Tim Redding is a person of interest for the Mets as well.  The Daily News believes the Mets are looking at Redding because of some limited success against the Phillies (3-1 against them last year).  Redding is the ultimate picture of mediocrity.  He is quite simply, not much.  He isn't even left handed either.  

I have a feeling that the Mets make a push for Lowe.  I am not convinced they care to have Perez back.  I think he represents that bitter pill of the last two seasons' failures.  I get the feeling that Omar wants to cut ties amicably.  Now that some of the big pitchers are gone, Lowe may be running out of serious suitors.  Beyond the Mets, who else is looking to spend $30 or more million on a starter?  I think that a 4 year deal for $12-$15 million a year signs Derek Lowe.  Somewhere in the $50-$60 million range seems doable and a better bet that A.J. Burnett.  What about a 2 year deal for Ben Sheets with an option year?  I really think the Mets need to sign two starters.  Jon Niese should be an arm as a backup in triple A to start.  He is not ready to start the year in the rotation.