All day I have been reading and re-reading the posts of this blog, as well as others regarding the Mets. It seems this off-season has been full of stories and backtracking and denials and misinformation. Even some of the top writers seem to be getting it all wrong. I have been trying to formulate a direction I see this team headed this off-season. So, between a lot of posts by myself & others, writers' opinions, statements by Minaya, and some educated guessing, I have put together some thoughts on where this team seems to be headed. Some stuff is not new, some is, take it for what it is. Educated speculation.
- The Mets will not overbid to secure any top free agents. A couple years ago, they could not get people in here without the extra year on the deal or the extra millions. Now, being a Met doesn't sound so bad. Minaya knows they are close, other players know this, so he will not extend contracts to the fifth year or that extra $15 million. Who does this regard? Players like Francisco Rodriguez, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez most notably. These free agents, and others, were probably expecting the Mets to drive up price and time, but it isn't happening. The only 4 year deal I see being offered is Perez maybe. There are too many questions on Rodriguez, Lowe is older, and some others like Brian Fuentes has no leverage with the state of the market
- It would seem that Omar will hit the free agent market for starting pitching and a closer. I think his mind set is that these two positions are worth a lost draft pick maybe. I do not sense that Minaya want to lose a draft pick to sign someone like Juan Cruz, as a middle reliever. Now that Street is available from someone other than Billy Beane, he can be had. In fact, Joel Sherman says Huston was almost a Met right after going to Colorado, but the Mets balked at the asking price of Heilman and Feliciano.
- Pitching is the only priority. Offense is gravy at this point. That may change later on in the off-season, especially if Minaya is able to sign a couple guys or trade for a guy/sign a guy by the end of the winter meetings. If Minaya had to go to opening day with his starting eight he has now, I sense he would be fine with it as long as he got the starters, middle relievers, and closer he needs. What is comforting to know is that Minaya knows this is not simply a ninth inning problem, its anyone after the starter. He likes Joe Smith, and maybe Brian Stokes, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Luis Ayala. Other than that, I think he would be fine with a major overhaul.
- Finally, it seems that Omar & Co. are dead set on controlling the market and not letting it control them. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Yankees seem to be trying to control the market, but they are just going to spend whatever it takes. Minaya seems to be going slow and holding his cards close as to not drive up the price on anyone, or to help overvalue anyone.
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